The question raised at the end of August (“seasonal slowdown or new trend?“) might indeed be answered in the very near future – at least, if Deutsche Bank’ shares contiue to plunge. But I am getting ahead of myself…
In September 2016, I published a comprehensive analysis (in German) of the potential impact of an economic crisis on the restructuring prospects for companies in Germany. The analysis is based on a total of seven theses, which I discussed in a (non-representative) survey among representatives from banks, funds, research and consulting.
August remained a relatively quiet month – especially in comparison to June and July. The developments of the previous months (and the season) only took a small toll on the current German economy. However, the outlook has deteriorated.
Amid Brexit, the Turkish Coup and now also terrorist attacks on its soil, the German economy overall remains strong in July 2016:
On 30 September 2015, the EU-Commission issued an action plan for the “realization of a capital markets union”. Therein, the Commission announces the presentation of a “legislative initiative” for the last quarter of 2016 which shall include the EU-wide implementation of “early restructuring procedures”. This initiative might present an ice-breaker for the German debate over a “pre-insolvency restructuring procedure” which has been stalled since 2011 after the ESUG.