After enjoying a “promising start” in January (here), a serious damper in February (here), the March outlook (here) proved to be too optimistic – even considering my caveats already at that time. But hey, let’s take a closer look:
The German economy in March 2023 – looking good at the surface…
…and maybe not rotten to the core. Still, to forecast the development of the German economy is more an art than science: While we enjoyed a “promising start” in January (here), the February figures (here) put a serious damper on it. So let’s take a closer look on how the German economy fared in March 2023 to see how it’s going:
The German economy in February 2023 – the light at the end of the tunnel…
…might indeed prove to be from an incoming train and not – as I summised the previous months (While I thought in the summer 2022 that we were nearing a recession in 2023, a silver-lining already occured in October (here) which got even brighter in November (here) and December 2022 (here)) – and not the silver lining of a “promising start” I made out in January (here). But hey, let’s take a closer look on how the German economy fared in February 2023 to find out more:
BGH on insolvency-dependent rescission clauses
Ten years after its last decision on this issue and six years after a decision of the VII Civil Senate that deviated from it (see here for the commentary at that time, in German), the IX Civil Senate of the German Federal Civil Court of Justice (BGH) in a decision from October 2022 once again … more
The German economy in January 2023 – of(f) to a promising start?
It is quite interesting how fast situations and perceptions can change: While I thought in the summer 2022 that we were nearing a recession in 2023, a silver-lining already occured in October (here) which got even brighter in November (here) and December 2022 (here). Hence, the question now is, will we be able to avoid a recession alltogether? In order to assess the situation, let’s take a closer look on how the German economy fared in January 2023:
Annual accounts 2022: the crux of the polycrisis
From a legal perspective, the management of corporations is obliged under § 264 of the German Commercial Code (HGB) to prepare annual financial statements (annual accounts) after the end of the financial year (often December 31 of a given year) within certain deadlines – staggered by the respective company`’s size. Against the background of the current economic development, which is difficult to predict (see here), the annual accounts for 2022 are likely to be of particular importance. Especially as these deadlines – irrespective of size (!) – can be considerably shortened in the event of a (foreseeable) crisis of the company.
Germany in 2023 – the murky chrystal ball?
“Germany had outsourced its security
to the United States, its energy needs to Russia
and its export-led growth to China.“
Constance Stelzenmüller (here)
Even more so than in previous years, which were in some cases full of corona, a look into the chrystal ball regarding Germany’s economic development in 2023 turns into a strained poking in the fog. Too many factors can drive developments in one direction or the other. But even if 2023 turns out to be more positive than expected – moderate economic growth with easing inflation – the signs for the years thereafter are not positive. As the following post will show, in just over twenty years Germany has merely gone around in circles once – at least as far as political goal-setting and economic resilience are concerned – without solving the problems of the time in a sustainable way.
The German economy in December 2022 – not so bad after all!?!
The war in Ukraine was still raging, but even in Germany Corona became old news as 2022 drew to a close. Hence, the hope which came up in October already as to the fate of the German economy (here) stabilised in November (here) and got even better at the end of one of the most disturbing years I personally encountered in my not so short life-span. But, hey, let’s take a closer look on how the German economy fared in December 2022:
Supply chains – not only an operational issue…
…no, since January 1, 2023, possibly also a legal one: On that day, the “German Act on Corporate Due Diligence Obligations in Supply Chains” came into force. After the pandemic years drastically demonstrated to Western industrial societies the fragility of supply chains – be it due to production losses caused by the Chinese central government’s pursuit of the so-called “no-covid strategy” (here, in German) or the blockade of the Suez Canal by the freighter “Ever Given” (here, in German) – the next tightening of supply chains is now looming, at least in Germany, this time through legal rules.
The German economy in November 2022 – have we really seen the bottom?
The war in Ukraine is still ongoing though there wasn’t too much actual movement throughout the month – probably due to Rasputitsa (for regular updates, cf. here, in German). The hope which came up last month as to the fate of the German economy (here) seems to somewhat stabilise now albeit on a low level. So, hey, let’s take a closer look on how the German economy fared in November 2022: